A trade deal between the EU and Mercosur (Paraguay, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, & Uruguay) under negotiation for ~25 years and rejected in 2019 has been agreed. Will the deal, or something substantially similar, be ratified by all parties (not necessarily entered into force) by the end of 2026?
https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-mercosur-set-finalise-contentious-trade-deal-2024-12-06/
https://www.dw.com/en/eu-delays-signing-mercosur-free-trade-deal-again/a-75237389
ITA ratification will resolve YES.
Previous (2025) market: https://manifold.markets/table8473/will-the-eumercosur-free-trade-agre
1,000People are also trading
Another edge case arises!
I'm inclined to resolve yes if approved provisionally and not subsequently annulled before the end of the year but happy to hear feedback otherwise.
@table8473 Hi, no, this is not an edge case. Provisional application isn't ratification. It's an alternative route being considered precisely because the ITA looks unlikely to be ratified any time soon. It would be an interesting market to bet on whether provisional application will happen, but that should be a new, different market.
Also - you mentioned Bolivia in the text. Is it one of the parties for the purpose of this market i.e. does Bolivia need to ratify the ITA in 2026 for a YES resolution? Thanks.
Edit: also, if you do decide to use provisional application as the criteria for the EU side (please don't!), would you still need all five Mercosur countries to ratify the deal, for a YES? The market description does refer to "all parties", not just the EU.
Free tade baby!
Sorry for coming from the UK, our country is embarrassing. I'll trade with whoever regardless of our political establishment.