When will Rocket Lab’s Neutron make its first flight?
When will Rocket Lab’s Neutron make its first flight?
20
1kṀ26092027
5%
Before July 1, 2025
39%
Before Jan 1, 2026
70%
Before July 1, 2026
85%
Before Jan 1, 2027
13%
2027 or later
Resolved
NOBefore Jan 1, 2025
As of March 19 2024, Rocket Lab is publicly targeting a launch in 2024.
As of May 2024, Rocket Lab is now targeting 2025.
Answers will resolve as YES if Neutron lifts off and clears the pad before the respective dates given. A successful remainder of the flight is not necessary. The flight does not need to be on an orbital trajectory.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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