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MANIFOLD
Will OpenAI and Anthropic both have moved off Unix-based operating systems by end of 2027?
16
Ṁ300Ṁ782
2028
45%
chance
20

Resolves YES if, by Dec 31, 2027, both OpenAI and Anthropic run most of their production workloads (training, inference, internal agents) on an operating system that is not Unix-based (not Linux, BSD, macOS, or another derivative of the Unix user/root security model). Resolves NO otherwise.

Linux with added sandboxing still counts as Unix-based, as does a new OS that runs most workloads in Linux VMs. Evidence: public statements or credible reporting. Employee laptops don't count.

Context: Tenobrus puts this at ~80%.

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