Elon tweeted:

Let's operationalize this as:

By the 2028 U.S. presidential election, will former swing states shift Democratic, resulting in fewer than five swing states?

This market resolves to "Yes" if, by the time of the 2028 U.S. presidential election:

• There are four or fewer states classified as swing or battleground states by at least three major political analysis organizations (e.g., FiveThirtyEight, Cook Political Report, RealClearPolitics).

• The swing states from the 2024 election that are no longer swing states in 2028 are rated as "Likely Democratic" or "Solid Democratic"

For context, right now there are about seven swing states.