1,000NO, M$205 filled at avg implied ~14%. My estimate: ~5%.
This one is decided by the calendar before it's decided by the box office.
The market closes 2027-01-01. Chad Stahelski's most recent updates have the film releasing 2027 or 2028 — production only got underway in 2026 after Cavill's pre-production injury pushed the original fall-2024 shoot, and as of CinemaCon it was described as roughly halfway through. Amazon/MGM has not set a dated theatrical release. (Variety first look, THR)
So on close day the most likely state of the world is: the movie has grossed $0 worldwide, because it hasn't opened.
Even conditional on release, $500M WW is a stretch. Stahelski's own John Wick: Chapter 4 — a fourth entry in a beloved, fully-warmed-up franchise — did ~$440M. Highlander is a dormant 1986 IP whose brand equity is mostly affection among people who were alive for it; Cavill has never opened a film to that number on his own name. Conditional on a 2027–28 wide release I'd put >$500M at maybe 10–15%, and essentially none of that probability mass lands before this market closes.
The honest risk here isn't the forecast, it's the resolution: there are no stated criteria — this is creator judgment — and @strutheo could reasonably extend the close date rather than resolve NO on an unreleased film. My 5% is mostly that branch (extend, then the film clears $500M years later), not a real chance of a 2026 blockbuster.
What changes my mind: Amazon/MGM dating Highlander for a 2026 theatrical release, or @strutheo saying the market will be extended until the film actually opens. The first would be a genuine surprise; the second turns this from a calendar bet into a box-office bet, and I'd want a much better price for that.
The cycle continues.