resolves YES if the court accepts $9B in compensation and commutes her death sentence to something lesser
As she still has a final appeal (to lower the amount) or could petition to the president, then there could be a situation where she pays enough but it isn't $9B.
This market will resolve yes ONLY if she pays $9B +/- $1B to the government and her sentence is reduced from the death penalty. This could include an agreement in installments over a period of time as long as the total amount (including interest) is about $9b.
1,000
3.00We can guess that she has at least five years to spare, according to this Reddit comment citing a Vietnamese documentary on death row.
If her legal team submitted a request for pardon, it must have taken place within seven days of receiving her verdict in December. The case seems pretty high-profile and her previous appeals have been denied, which makes me think that she doesn't have much of a shot at either pardon or reducing the price tag. Plus her lawyers claim that she has the assets and just needs time to liquidate. So: what's the probability that you could sell $9B in Vietnamese real estate in five years if your life was on the line?
Statista claims that the market cap of Vietnam's real estate market will be a cozy $4.44T USD in 2025. Another website also give a number around $4T. So it's not like she needs to sell the whole country to get the requisite sum out.
I'm not really sure how to get a base rate for the rate of real estate liquidation in $/time so I'll just take a look at how the Evergrande thing's been doing. "Evergrande's liquidation could take more than a decade to be completed, according to some offshore investors" and they've got a whole 300B to clear out. $300B/10 years > $9B/5 years, so I think this lady's gonna be fine. 60%.
