I was early to bet on this, but now I regret it because this question feels like an overreach into his privacy. Until/unless Barron publicly touts his academic progress or starts chasing the spotlight, I no longer feel comfortable influencing his reputation. And I would lightly encourage people in general to consider a similar stance for any family members of public figures.

@LoganTurner A fair concern! The border between a private family member of a public figure and a public figure in their own right is certainly blurry, but you're right that he's been foisted into the public sphere by no acts of his own afaik

@Stralor Oh yeah it's definitely blurry. I pushed the line recently on privacy with my market about which astronaut got sick on the ISS. And maybe I was wrong to leave it up. (BTW, not saying strutheo was wrong to make this market.)

To maintain a daily streak, I have a habit of browsing to new and betting on the first market that should be higher/lower than 50%. Probably that was how I found this one. I describe the use of Manifold to myself (and others) by saying that it's adding information, not gambling. But if I really mean that, then betting becomes kind of like a speech act. And then it's easy to slip from "I think X is more probable" to "I will say that X is more probable" without thinking through the consequences of a speech act.

The friction is purposefully very low, which enables a lot of information sharing that wouldn't otherwise happen. But it also can reduce the feeling of responsibility for the information you add to the market. Whereas insider trading doesn't seem to cause problems here because it's only play-money, there is some danger in the ease of making and betting on corrosive markets. So in an era of extra negativity about prediction markets in general, this is a reminder to myself to step back and predict more responsibly.