MANIFOLD
🍾What will happen in January 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
84
Ṁ900Ṁ11k
resolved Feb 1
Resolved
YES
noam chomsky alive until end of month
Resolved
YES
trump leaves usa at least once
Resolved
YES
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
Resolved
YES
at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it
Resolved
YES
large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement
Resolved
YES
Sam Altman still CEO through end of month
Resolved
YES
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
Resolved
YES
nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain
Resolved
YES
usa bombs or missle strikes syria
Resolved
YES
Volcano dormant for half a year erupts
Resolved
N/A
twitter/x banned in another country (announced, even if it can be circumvented)
Resolved
N/A
nVidia becomes the largest company in the history of the world (by market capitalization) at least once
Resolved
N/A
dick cheney still alive at end of month
Resolved
NO
ukraine russia ceasefire
Resolved
NO
china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death
Resolved
NO
earthquake 7.0+ magnitude
Resolved
NO
major tech company merger/acquisition announced
Resolved
NO
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates
Resolved
NO
An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced
Resolved
NO
starship launch

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

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bought Ṁ30 YES

@strutheo
Does this count?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayon
On January 1, PHIVOLCS raised Mayon Volcano to Alert Level 2 amid escalating signs of volcanic unrest, with 47 rockfall events recorded the previous day—the highest single-day total observed in the past year.[112] Five days later, on January 6, the alert level was further elevated to Alert Level 3 following a magmatic eruption that generated pyroclastic density currents down the volcano’s southeastern slope.[113][114] On January 20, a state of calamity was declared in Tabaco, Albay due to the ongoing activity.[115]

@strutheo Can this (and future months) be changed to
New nominal US$ market capitalization record for the largest company in the history of the world

The mention of Nvidia just confuses matters and causes N/As

bought Ṁ38 YES

@strutheo In Davos

bought Ṁ63 NO

Dick Cheney already died.

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