MANIFOLD
☃️What will happen in December 2025? [ADD RESPONSES]
53
Ṁ575Ṁ5.3k
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
YES
earthquake 7.0+ magnitude
Resolved
YES
major tech company merger/acquisition announced
Resolved
YES
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates
Resolved
YES
noam chomsky alive until end of month
Resolved
YES
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
Resolved
YES
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive during the entire month
Resolved
YES
at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it
Resolved
YES
a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news
Resolved
YES
earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher
Resolved
YES
Sam Altman still CEO through end of month
Resolved
YES
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
Resolved
YES
nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain
Resolved
YES
usa bombs or missle strikes syria
Resolved
YES
Volcano dormant for half a year erupts
Resolved
N/A
nVidia becomes the largest company in the history of the world (by market capitalization) at least once
Resolved
N/A
large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement
Resolved
N/A
israel hamas ceasefire
Resolved
NO
ukraine russia ceasefire
Resolved
NO
china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death
Resolved
NO
100F temperature in nyc at least one day

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

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bought Ṁ150 YES

@JussiVilleHeiskanen @strutheo
Kikai (Japan), which had its first eruption since September 2024 on December 29, 2025.

bought Ṁ20 YES

@strutheo
https://www.npr.org/2025/12/19/g-s1-103194/u-s-launches-strikes-syria
U.S. launches strikes in Syria targeting Islamic State fighters after American deaths

😆

bought Ṁ20 YES

@strutheo stats page graph gives 1310 dollars for Dec 1st

bought Ṁ7 YES

@strutheo USGS good enough?

filled a Ṁ10 YES at 99.0% order
filled a Ṁ10 NO at 4% order

@strutheo Another one?

for nVidea -- the most logical approach would be to rename the question or resolve it as N/A for December as well.

@AlvaLindqvist The question is not about whether NVIDIA will break its own record.

@strutheo resolve no

bought Ṁ150 NO

@realDonaldTrump Mockery market of the wording of "Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive for the entire month.

@strutheo Does it have to happen during this month, or if it happens before it will also resolve YES?

@Fedor has to happen in dec

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