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MANIFOLD
🐣What will happen in April 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
124
Ṁ1kṀ16k
resolved May 1
Resolved
YES
earthquake 7.0+ magnitude
Resolved
YES
noam chomsky alive until end of month
Resolved
YES
Anthropic or Meta release a new model
Resolved
YES
at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it
Resolved
YES
large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement
Resolved
YES
Sam Altman still CEO through end of month
Resolved
YES
american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran
Resolved
YES
Volcano dormant for half a year erupts
Resolved
YES
Member of U.S Congress resigns, dies, or is removed from office
Resolved
YES
A tornado in the USA rated EF4 or greater
Resolved
N/A
ajay is cold
Resolved
N/A
Accidentally Clicked this
Resolved
N/A
earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher
Resolved
N/A
Mass tech layoffs announced
Resolved
N/A
major tech company merger/acquisition announced
Resolved
NO
ukraine russia ceasefire
Resolved
NO
china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death
Resolved
NO
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates
Resolved
NO
An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced
Resolved
NO
starship launch

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

  • Update 2026-03-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Events must occur in April 2026 (not merely by April 2026).

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bought Ṁ20 YES

"

  • On April 20, 2026, a magnitude ~7.5 earthquake struck off the Sanriku coast in northern Japan.

  • Some reports initially estimated it slightly higher (up to ~7.7), but it’s generally recorded in the 7.4–7.5+ range, which meets your “7.5+” threshold depending on the source/rounding.

"

@AlanTennant see post below Japan has a different scale.

sold Ṁ20 YES

@AlanTennant I guess this choice of rounding indicates that it's between 7.4 and 7.5 🤷‍♂️

@AlanTennant Are you sure that it isn't that Japan was first to start issuing sizes on its scale and the early estimates on that scale were 7.4 then 7.5 before settling at 7.7 while USGS later put it at 7.4 and kept it at that value? (That is my impression but not with huge confidence there could be other twists and turns I am not aware of.)

@ChristopherRandles I don't know. 🤔

bought Ṁ10 NO

@strutheo
Japan reported 7.7 but I believe that is on their own different scale and the standard magnitude scale is as reported here
https://www.iris.edu/app/seismic-monitor/table

7.4 max so far. Could still be a 7.5 this month.

Posting to say please watch what scale is used.

sold Ṁ36 YES

@strutheo Do reposts count?

bought Ṁ189 NO

@8negus @strutheo
Tottenham Hotspur did beat wolves 25th April so resolves no
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/live/cg409qyzn6xt

bought Ṁ15 YES

Does the ukraine-russia ceasefire have to be lasting? Who has to declare it, one or both sides?

What if its declared, and then violated ten minutes after?

ajay is N/A, please

bought Ṁ10 YES

OBVVV AJAY IS COLD HES CAMPING FUH NAH BOT

7.4 Earthquake on 1st April

Meme gif. A crying face of Michael Jordan is edited on top of a young man who is sitting and wears a hoodie. He stands up, throws his hood on, and walks away.

opened a Ṁ29 NO at 99.0% order

In April 2026 or by April 2026?

@strutheo

the title says "in"

@strutheo will the closing date be extended?