MANIFOLD
📆What will happen in 2025? [ADD RESPONSES]
129
Ṁ815Ṁ8.9k
Jan 1
20%
official trailer releases for S&box (new facepunch / garry mod game)
19%
Total funding for the Effective Altruism movement grows >25% compared to 2023
8%
any country starts a new invasion of another country
7%
Trump or Biden are hospitalized for any period of time
Resolved
YES
Large Tech company announces layoffs
Resolved
YES
Israel : Hamas Ceasefire
Resolved
YES
Taylor Swift becomes engaged to be married (to anyone)
Resolved
YES
MLB World Series won by the National League team
Resolved
YES
Earthquake over 8.0 magnitude
Resolved
YES
Pope Francis dies
Resolved
YES
Taylor Swift drops a new album (not a Taylor’s Version of an older album actually majority new tracks)
Resolved
YES
USA government shutdown
Resolved
YES
New Pope
Resolved
YES
Skate 4 Release
Resolved
YES
Tesla catches fire reported by news or https://www.tesla-fire.com/
Resolved
YES
at least one equipment caused death at a theme park in the USA due to ride failure, negligence, or other similar cause (not: pool drowning, natural disasters , medical, or forced violence)
Resolved
YES
Three or more teslas catch fire as reported by the Tesla-fire website (or multiple mainstream news)
Resolved
YES
A famous global brand undergoes a rebranding
Resolved
YES
6 or more people die in a single shooting incident in the united states
Resolved
YES
gpt 5 released

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

  • Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'H5N1 pandemic declared', the declaration is assumed to be by the USA.

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bought Ṁ53 YES

145 Falcon 9 launches plus 5 Starship makes 150 launches reached

bought Ṁ40 YES

@strutheo definition of "famous global brand"

@strutheo resoves yes

bought Ṁ3 YES

@SteveSokolowski by which country?

@KJW_01294 assuming usa

New Pope question can resolve yes

Think these can resolve @strutheo Thanks

6 or more people die in a single shooting incident in the united states

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mass_shootings_in_the_United_States_in_2025

April 8 and April 9
March 29 22 ...
oops sorry looked at wrong column

Nintendo Direct airs

https://www.nintendo.com/en-gb/News/Nintendo-Direct/Latest-Nintendo-Direct/Nintendo-Direct-698557.htm

joseph anderson releases his long awaited witcher 3 video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WtIie2yPdSU
was counted elsewhere by you

Israel : Hamas Ceasefire
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Gaza_war_ceasefire

@strutheo This has to be YES by now with all of the attacks on Tesla dealers.

How do I add answers? I would like to add:

  • Nuclear weapons kill at least 100 people

  • A new global pandemic with severity comparable to COVID-19

  • China invades or blockades Taiwan

  • Overall decline in white-collar jobs

  • Inflation higher than in 2024

  • Civil unrest causes martial law in at least one US city

bought Ṁ5 YES

@strutheo it's day 1 of 2025, and a Tesla Cybertruck has already exploded

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1874546195944615987?t=8KR5pPHnCdnOk7KVTg9qPQ&s=19

bought Ṁ75 NO

@strutheo Resolves NO, happened in 2024

@strutheo would a carnival qualify? (temporarily set up somewhere, then moved elsewhere)

@snazzlePop must be an established theme park!

@strutheo does total destruction or surrender of remaining Hamas forces, thus a ceasation of firing, count as ceasefire?

@TheAllMemeingEye i think we'll need to see what the world thinks at the time. hamas leadership is still floating around other countries too

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