How many traders will this question get before Manifold shuts down?
21
325Ṁ3286
2033
98.9%
>=100
97%
>=200
69%
>=500
63%
>=1000
48%
>=2000
48%
>=5000
48%
>=10,000
29%
>=20,000
27%
>=200k
26%
>=50,000
25%
>=100k
14%
>=1,000,000
3%
>=2,000,000

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bought Ṁ1 YES

Let us apply Carter's doomsday argument here. A trader assumes their rank among all traders to ever exist to be a uniform draw. I look at the top of the page and see that I am only 21st trader! Therefore, there is only about 20% chance that Manifold will make it to a hundred traders here. Looks like the doomsday is really close.

@StepanBakhmarin and the market's horribly mispriced, I might add

Before they shut down the question?

If Manifold shut down, I don’t think any of us would see a payout, no?

@MitchellSessions the website :)

@strutheo How... will we get mana though

@ProjectVictory in our hearts

sold Ṁ0 NO

@ProjectVictory Well, some answers will probably resolve to YES. And the other answers are more about buying and reselling NO.

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