At the end of 2026 what will be the oldest Manifold market that is still open? [ADD RESPONSES]
5
295Ṁ16462027
47%
Will circular economy become mainstream in 20 years? https://manifold.markets/CeceliaChuh/will-circular-economy-become-mainst
41%
8%
Will there be US Constitutional reform by 2027? https://manifold.markets/PaulElliottWilliams/will-there-be-us-constitutional-ref
3%
Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor? https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-ray-kurzweil-win-his-2029-turi
1.2%
If Kamala Harris becomes the Democratic nominee, will she win the 2024 election? https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/if-kamala-harris-becomes-the-democr
Have to be real markets with traders and resolvable criteria by my judgement
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bought Ṁ40 YES1y
This is the oldest that currently has a close date set after the end of 2026.
"circular economy" is a real concept, as far as I can tell this is a meaningful, resolvable market:
@chrisjbillington Actually that's a lie, this one below about a reddit IPO is the oldest with a close date past end of 2026, but I expect an early resolution for it:
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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