Update 2026-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES shortly after a global decline in adult obesity prevalence is reported by: A UN organization, or A reputable peer-reviewed study A sustained decline is not required - a single reported decline is sufficient for YES resolution.

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 73% chance (9 traders, as of Mar 22, 2026).

Will the global prevalence of obesity peak before 2050?

Ṁ177Ṁ245

2050

73%

chance

ALL

Update 2026-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES shortly after a global decline in adult obesity prevalence is reported by:
- A UN organization, or
- A reputable peer-reviewed study

A sustained decline is not required - a single reported decline is sufficient for YES resolution.

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I understand this is primarily a sentiment market, but for clarity, by peaking do you mean simply that it will experience a decline of some length, and how long time period would it have to decline for you to resolve YES, or is the idea that it will never resolve YES before 2050?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I plan to resolve YES shortly after a global decline in adult obesity prevalence is reported by a UN organization or in a reputable peer-reviewed study, hopefully well before 2050. A sustained decline is not required.