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By the year 2030, will it be routine for autonomous robotic systems to perform surgical interventions?
21
Ṁ1kṀ1.1k
2030
18%
chance

Autonomous robotic systems - systems that can perform surgical interventions without any human involvement in the actual operation, potentially under human supervision

Routine - covered by common health insurance plans

  • Update 2026-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Geographic scope: Not limited to the United States. Coverage by public insurance (if applicable) in any country would be sufficient to resolve YES.

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Assuming this is purely in an American context.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Not necessary, but probably such interventions will become routine in the US first. Coverage by public insurance (if applicable) in any country would be sufficient to resolve YES.

How is this market going to resolve, if a human has to monitor the surgery and intervene in case something goes wrong, but otherwise the surgery is fully automated?

Or in other words, what "level of driving automation" would this market expect for surgery? 2 (hands off), 3 (eyes off), 4 (mind off), 5 (human completely unneeded)?

I bet on YES expect a level 2 automation: a human is required by law to monitor on the process. Anything more than that feels unrealistic because the legislation in medical matters isn't going to be change that quickly.

@Benx Level 2.

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