Which countries will the USA bomb through 2028?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1.2kṀ5k

2028

71%

Nigeria

27%

Greenland

26%

Libya

26%

Afghanistan

21%

Mexico

18%

Pakistan

17%

Cuba

10%

Russia

China

Egypt

Jordan

Israel

North Korea

Resolved

YES

Iran

Resolved

YES

Syria

Resolved

YES

Venezuela

Resolved

YES

Yemen

Resolved

YES

Iraq

bomb a country = missile, rocket, bomb, drone or similar attack on the territory of the country of at least ten missiles/rockets/bombs/drones in a continuous 12-month period

(must be on or after market creation date)

Update 2026-01-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Only options created before the bombing event occurs will resolve YES. Options added after a country has already been bombed will not resolve positively for that event.

Market context

US Politics

Wars

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(only resolves for options created before the event)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOmTGSnDbRs

@shankypanky Libya.

@TiredCliche ack, what a silly transposition. thanks I've fixed it

bought Ṁ300 YES

@skibidist Syria can resolve YES: https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2024/12/9/us-announces-air-strikes-on-isil-targets-in-syria-sfter-al-assadss-fall

@Arky Sure, however:

APIError: Independent multiple choice markets cannot currently be resolved

@skibidist https://twitter.com/jhaboush/status/1818409801358950718

I find the 'purely defensive action on the territory of an invaded country' to be confusing. It makes me pause on predicting this market. Would the recent bombing you Yemen by the US count a defensive if this market had been created before it happened? what about the recent bombing in Iraq?

@FakeMoney I removed that line. Neither case you mention would have fallen under the exception. I agree it was confusing and the market is better without it.

(If an existing bettor thinks they lost money due to the change, I’m happy to compensate)