• Update 2025-02-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Hospitalization Criteria Update:

  • Any stay qualifies: Even a short hospitalization in a mental institution counts for this market.

  • Implicit assumption: It is assumed that you must multiply the probability of hospitalization by the probability that it comes to light.

• Update 2025-02-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Definition of Mental Institution:

  • Any psychiatric ward or similar facility is considered a mental institution for this market.

Resolution Timing:

• The market resolution will occur at least two weeks after the close date, with further delay if there are grounds to expect additional news.