In 2025, will I be able to play Civ against an LLM?
50
1kṀ4649
2026
25%
chance

I've been enjoying Unciv, an open source Civ 5 clone that can run on a "potato". Though the game mechanics are well designed, the player-bot interaction is very limited. A small menu of possible actions like "Declare War" or "Propose a Peace Treaty" is the only way to communicate with the AI players.

This market resolves YES if sometime in 2025 it's possible to play either Unciv, Freeciv, or any official version of Sid Meier's Civilization with LLMs powering the other civilizations and city states.

These are the specific features that must be provided:

  1. I can open a text chat with any bot player to discuss diplomacy, disclose information, and make trade deals.

  2. An LLM is ultimately responsible for each individual action taken by each bot, instead of simply being an NPC dialogue generator.

  3. The LLM needs to be a SOTA model.

  4. The bots should be having dialogues with each other as well, in exactly the same way that I'd have dialogues with them.

Clarification (h/t @LiamZ):

The LLM can have access to any tools, including querying "advice" from traditional AI bot code, as long as it still qualifies for point (2) above.

Clarification to point (1):

Any game-relevant social behavior should be possible, where "game-relevant" excludes things like "Passing the Turing Test", but includes things like "Negotiating a secret pact to betray another Civ at a particular moment" (a double-betrayal in this circumstance is also acceptable, as long as the LLM player does it intentionally and not as a result of e.g. losing the context of the previous conversation it had).

Clarification to point (3) (h/t @TheAllMemeingEye, @ampdot):

The model appears in the top 20 of this list at any moment in the year.

I won't bet in this market.

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