Is Satoshi Nakamoto = Craig Wright?
23
1kṀ16042029
3%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Gwern says "probably": https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19746448
resolves YES if there's conclusive evidence (i'm subjectively >99% confident) that Craig Wright is Satoshi Nakamoto, invented Bitcoin, etc before 2030
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Who is Satoshi Nakamoto
Is Peter Todd Satoshi Nakamoto?
11% chance
Is Satoshi Nakamoto a single person?
79% chance
Is Satoshi Nakamoto alive?
43% chance
Will any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?
If the identity of Satoshi is ever definitively proven, who will it be?
Will the true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be revealed by the end of 2025?
3% chance
Is Satoshi Nakamoto a rogue AI?
3% chance
Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?
20% chance
Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?
20% chance