This market shall resolve to Yes if at any time during the year 2026, the US Federal Government is in what is described by media sources determined by me to be reliable as a government shutdown involving furloughing of workers.
Update 2026-01-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A shutdown that occurs only during a weekend will resolve YES if non-essential workers with weekend shifts are furloughed, even if the shutdown is resolved before Monday morning.
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@satchlj are we far enough into it to resolve YES? OPM has the official shutdown notice at https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/
@satchlj does is count if shutdown only happens during a weekend and is resolved before Monday morning?
@AnonUser if a shutdown only happens during the weekend, some workers would still be furloughed, the non-essential workers who happen to have weekend shifts
In that case, the market would resolve yes