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Would AI beat humans at AtCoder Grand Finals (16 July 2025)
45
Ṁ250Ṁ7.6k
resolved Jul 17
Resolved
NO

World-class competitive programmers will compete against AI in a heuristic programming contest on July 16, 2025 in Tokyo. The match will be part of the AtCoder Heuristic division finals (9:00-19:00 JST).

Key details:

  • Contest type: Heuristic optimization (not algorithmic)

  • Participants: Top 12 human programmers vs AI system(s)

  • Sponsor: OpenAI

  • Note: Organizers emphasize this is an "assessment" rather than pure competition, though concrete scores will be produced

See this https://prtimes.jp/main/html/rd/p/000000059.000028415.html for

more details.

Rules are not very clear for now but I expect results to be very clear. However, if they will not be clear, it will be resolved to my best judgement (e.g. may resolve N/A)

  • Update 2025-07-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In the case of a tie, the market will resolve to N/A.

  • Update 2025-07-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to concerns about the timing of the official results, the creator has stated:

    • The market's close date has been extended by one week.

    • The market will be resolved as soon as the final results are available.

Market context
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bought Ṁ20 NO

​​Officials: "systest result will be out tomorrow. We'll do our best to finish it."

Saw that in the YouTube chat. Final results might not come out until after the market resolves?

bought Ṁ10 YES

@jessald I moved market closing date a week away but I will aim to resolve as soon as results are in

bought Ṁ80 YES

the key fact is "Sponsor: OpenAI"

More context:

  • Seems like OpenAI has some kind of model or system that is tuned for tasks of this kind (heuristics). Source: this came to me in a dream

  • The best currently existing AI (https://sakana.ai/ale-bench/) took 21th (top 2%) place in last public competition of this kind

bought Ṁ30 NO

I updated description. When I was creating this market I was on the go and thought it's algorithmic contest but actually it's heuristic one. I think this format favors humans.

opened a Ṁ70 NO at 49% order

If the AI ties the humans, will that be a NO?

@CraigDemel good question. I have not considered this because in human competitions there are no ties (time is tiebreaker) but in this case there might be a tie. I think N/A probably makes sense as a "neutral" outcome in the case of tie

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