A COVID-like lockdown refers to the restrictions and measures implemented by authorities as pointed below:
Stay-at-Home Orders: Residents are advised or mandated to stay at home except for essential activities, such as buying groceries, seeking medical care, or going to work if their job is deemed essential.
Closure of Non-Essential Businesses: Non-essential businesses, such as restaurants, bars, gyms, and entertainment venues, may be temporarily closed to reduce gatherings.
Remote Work: Companies and organizations may implement work-from-home policies to minimize the number of people in offices and other workspaces.
Travel Restrictions: Restrictions on domestic and international travel may be imposed to prevent the movement of individuals between regions and countries.
Social Distancing: People are encouraged to maintain physical distance from others, typically around 6 feet.
Mask Mandates: The use of face masks may be mandated in public spaces to provide an additional layer of protection against respiratory droplets.
Limitations on Gatherings: Restrictions on the size of gatherings, including events, parties, and religious ceremonies, are often implemented to prevent large gatherings.
If *ANY* of the above numbered event occurs, the question will resolve to YES.
The above mentioned event MUST occur within the USA.
The above mentioned event MUST occur nation-wide (more than 60% of the States implements lockdown).
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Would the declaration of martial law count if it affected a significant part of a city? For example, if there were violent protests in Denver and the state forbade 50k+ people from leaving home for 24 hours, would this resolve YES? What if it were 20 major cities spread around the country?
@Mirek Do you think the number of people is too small in that case, or that only a lockdown for public health reasons should resolve this YES? I'm interested to hear @predyx_markets' thoughts.
Politicians have raised the possibility of declaring martial law several times in recent years, and large election protests seem likely in 2024. The terms would probably be something like "don't be outside unless it's essential", which is basically the same as what the covid lockdowns were. If this happened in a few dense big cities it would easily affect ~25% of the US population., which I'd argue could satisfy the criteria of this market.
Many states already have mail-in. All elections are conducted by states, so the federal government has nothing to do with this. What is the question asking exactly?
@predyx_markets common mistake 😉 thanks for the clarification!
Now, I'm not trying to be picky here, but I still think this would benefit from a geographical scope clarification. I don't know this for sure because I'm not American, but I presume smart states were much more cautious than dumb ones back then, right?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?