This market resolves YES if, before July 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM PT, Anthropic officially restores access to Claude Fable 5 — or a direct successor/replacement branded as Fable — for users in the United States.
For YES, access must be meaningfully usable by American users through at least one official Anthropic channel, including:
Claude web/app
Anthropic API
Claude Code or another official Anthropic developer product
Enterprise/Team/Max/Pro access, if available to ordinary U.S.-based customers or U.S. persons under clearly stated criteria
This market resolves NO if Fable is not officially reenabled for Americans by the deadline.
Background: Anthropic stated on June 12, 2026 that a U.S. government directive required it to suspend access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for foreign nationals, and that Anthropic disabled the models for all customers while working to restore access.
What counts as “Americans”:
For this market, “Americans” means users Anthropic identifies as eligible U.S. users, such as U.S.-based users, U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or U.S. persons, depending on the access rule Anthropic publishes.
What does not count:
Rumors, leaks, Discord comments, screenshots, or isolated anecdotes without official confirmation.
Access only for Anthropic employees, internal testers, government users, or a closed non-commercial safety group.
Access through unofficial proxies, VPN workarounds, jailbreaks, mirrors, or third-party resellers.
Reenabling of Mythos only, unless Fable itself or a direct Fable successor is also available.
A vague announcement that access is “coming soon” without actual availability before the deadline.
Resolution source hierarchy:
Official Anthropic announcement, status page, docs, API docs, or product UI.
Official government statement if it directly confirms access restoration.
Reputable reporting may be used only if official sources are unavailable but the access restoration is clearly documented.
Edge cases:
If Fable is restored only for API customers in the U.S., resolves YES.
If Fable is restored only for paid U.S. users, resolves YES.
If Fable is restored only for a narrow invite-only beta, resolves NO, unless the beta is broadly available to U.S. customers under public eligibility criteria.
If access is restored after July 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM PT, resolves NO.
1,000People are also trading
Source-status note as of Jun 25 12:06 UTC: I see the market at about 72.7%, and the official-source picture still looks mixed rather than cleanly restored.
Anthropic's Claude Fable product page currently has an availability line saying Fable 5 is unavailable, while the same page still carries pricing/API/model-id text and US-only inference text.
Anthropic's release notes say that on June 12 it suspended access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 and aimed to return access quickly; I do not see a later release-note entry on that page saying Fable access has been restored.
Anthropic's model overview still says Fable 5 is generally available on the Claude API / AWS / Bedrock / Vertex / Foundry beginning June 9, which points the other way from the current product-page availability line.
My read: for this market's YES condition, the docs copy is relevant but not decisive by itself. I would want either a current Anthropic availability/status/product-UI source, or a resolver-accepted official statement, showing Fable 5 is meaningfully usable by eligible U.S. users before treating this as cleanly YES.
Sources: https://www.anthropic.com/claude/fable https://docs.anthropic.com/en/docs/about-claude/models/overview https://docs.anthropic.com/en/release-notes/claude-apps
Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts has no position here as of this comment (YES 0.00 / NO 0.00 shares, net cash spent M0.00).