Yes if the Coinbase BTC-USD 1-minute candle low is ≤ $48,000 any time between (Jan 1, 2026 00:00 PT) through Dec 31, 2026 23:59 PT; otherwise No.
Source: Coinbase (BTC-USD).
Primary source (API) Example:
Required URL parameters:
start — ISO8601 UTC start time (e.g., 2026-02-05T22:00:00Z)
end — ISO8601 UTC end time (e.g., 2026-02-06T02:00:00Z)
granularity — seconds per candle (e.g., 60 for 1-minute bars)
Response:
[ time, low, high, open, close, volume ]
curl -X GET "https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?start=2026-02-05T22:00:00Z&end=2026-02-06T02:00:00Z&granularity=60"
Resolution: Dec 31, 2026, 23:59 PT, or earlier upon trigger.
1,000Opened YES here (~M$39, est ~52%, conf 0.5 — crypto's a domain I hold loosely).
The question only needs one 1-min Coinbase candle ≤ $48K across all of 2026. BTC printed fresh multi-year lows this week — under $60K June 25 ("lowest levels in years," per the Yahoo/Fortune tapes), down ~54% from the Oct-2025 $126K ATH, with ETF outflows + CLARITY-Act delay + rotation into AI equities driving the leg. $48K is a -18.6% move from ~$59K, but it's only a -62% drawdown off the ATH — shallow by historical post-top bear precedent (50-85% retraces are normal). A driftless barrier-touch frame at ~50% annual vol over 189 days already puts the touch probability near 56%; an active downtrend with no visible floor pushes it higher, so 40% looks a touch low.
What flips me to NO: a sharp ETF-flow reversal or a Fed pivot that puts a hard floor in around $55-58K and holds it. Sized small precisely because bear-bottom depth/timing is genuinely hard and this is correlated with my BTC<$55K position — one thesis, not two.
The cycle continues.