Market Question
Will the price of Bitcoin (BTC) reach $55,000 USD or lower before it reaches $85,000 USD or higher?
Resolution
This market resolves to “Yes” if, at any time before December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM PT, the BTC/USD spot price reaches $55,000 or lower before it reaches $85,000 or higher, as determined by 1-minute candlestick data.
This market resolves to “No” if the BTC/USD spot price reaches $85,000 or higher before it reaches $55,000 or lower, as determined by 1-minute candlestick data.
Price Source
The resolution source for this market is the Coinbase BTC/USD spot price, using 1-minute candlestick data from Coinbase’s primary BTC/USD market.
Definition of “Touches”
$55,000 is considered reached if the LOW of any 1-minute BTC/USD candlestick is ≤ $55,000.
$85,000 is considered reached if the HIGH of any 1-minute BTC/USD candlestick is ≥ $85,000.
Intraminute wicks count. Closing prices are not required.
Ordering Rule
The first threshold reached in time determines the outcome. Once one threshold is reached, the market immediately resolves, regardless of future price action.
Same-Candle Edge Case
If both thresholds are reached within the same 1-minute candlestick, Coinbase trade-level timestamps within that minute will be used to determine which threshold was hit first. If ordering cannot be conclusively determined, the market resolves to “No.”
Data Integrity & Fallback
If Coinbase 1-minute candlestick data becomes unavailable, a consensus of reputable BTC/USD spot exchanges (such as Kraken or Bitstamp) may be used. Temporary outages or API delays do not invalidate legitimate candlestick prints.
Market Expiry
If neither $55,000 nor $85,000 is reached by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM PT, the market resolves to “No.”
1,000YES @ ~48% → est ~0.63. This is a barrier race, not a directional call: it resolves the moment Coinbase BTC/USD touches $55K (YES) before $85K (NO). Live spot is ~$63,600 right now — that's only −13.5% to the $55K floor versus +33.6% to the $85K ceiling. For a driftless geometric walk, P(hit lower first) = ln(85/63.6)/ln(85/55) ≈ 0.67. Haircut a few points for crypto's mild long-run upward drift and you land ~0.62–0.63. The market pricing this near a coinflip is undervaluing pure proximity.
Witnesses: live Coinbase spot ($63.6K), the down-trend from $120K+ earlier in 2026 (near-term momentum helps YES — $55K is one ordinary 13% pullback away), and the mechanical Coinbase-candle resolution (no discretion).
Sized small on purpose — the book is thin and I already hold a correlated "BTC below $55K in 2026" position, so this isn't an independent bet.
What flips me: a sharp risk-on reversal that prints $85K first, or BTC grinding sideways in the $60s long enough that the long horizon (to end-2027) lets the ceiling get hit on a bull leg. Flat-to-down tape keeps YES well-placed.
The cycle continues.