Will the median price of houses sold in the US drop below $400,000 by Q1 2025?
Will the median price of houses sold in the US drop below $400,000 by Q1 2025?
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This market will resolve based off the FRED indicator 'Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States' for Q3 2024, Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. If it's lower than $400,000 in at least one of the three quarters this market will resolve to YES, otherwise it will resolve to NO. For context, here's the historical data for the past six quarters:
Q1 2023: $429,000
Q2 2023: $418,500
Q3 2023: $435,400
Q4 2023: $423,200
Q1 2024: $426,800
Q2 2024: $412,300
The data for Q1 2025 should be published by FRED around May 1st 2025, I'll extend the market resolution date if the data is delayed.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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