MANIFOLD
In which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"?
55
Ṁ10kṀ13k
2030
0.9%
2024
2%
2025
6%
2026
8%
2027
9%
2028
11%
2029
63%
2030+ or never

This market will resolve when Zvi Mowshowitz declares that we've now entered an "AI Winter". The declaration has to be serious and not in jest - i.e. an April 1st joke on Twitter wouldn't count.

The declaration can be made on Zvi's Twitter, Substack or any other social media platform reliably known to be controlled by Zvi.

This market will resolve to N/A if Zvi stops being active on social media for a period of at least 6 months.

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bought Ṁ40 NO

Can resolve for 2025 as well

@DavidHiggs confirmed, but AFAIK I can't resolve just one option right? At least I still don't see how in the UI

@nsokolsky oh I’m not sure I’ve never made one of these markets. I’ve seen other markets with some options resolved, but maybe those were a different type?

Didn’t happen in 2024.

I think it wouldn’t be controversial to say it didn’t happen in 2025 either, given that the blog is still 90% about AI.

Starting to think 2030 or never will end up winning.

bought Ṁ10 YES

Becoming convinced this will happen around 2026 given that GPT-5 is still not released.

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