Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if OpenAI officially announces a new frontier-class model with a version number greater than 5.4 (e.g., GPT-5.5 or GPT-6) or other full-size, general purpose, frontier model before May 1, 2026. Announcement must come via official OpenAI channels (blog, website, social media, press release). Minor patches, safety updates, or specialist or API-only variants (like GPT-5.x-Codex) do not count—there must be a distinct new model designation marketed as a capability upgrade over GPT-5.4.

Resolves NO if no such announcement occurs by the deadline.

some resolution examples:

• 5.5 codex would not resolve yes since it’s a specialist model

• 5.5 mini would not resolve yes unless OpenAI specifically call it a frontier model, not just for its size. (for example, when o4-mini was released, OpenAI specifically called it frontier alongside o3. So I would consider it “full size” in that it’s not simply at the pareto frontier for its size. When Sonnet 4.5 was released, it was intended to replace Opus 4.1 despite being a smaller model, so if an analogous situation happened here, I would resolve yes.)

• a new series of general purpose, frontier model would resolve yes. for example, if OpenAI mysteriously changed their naming scheme back to oX, an o4 or o5 model would resolve yes despite having a version number <5.2.

Context - recent hype about a new OpenAI model codenamed “Spud”: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-ceo-shifts-responsibilities-preps-spud-ai-model

I will NOT bet on this market to prevent any conflict of interest.