MANIFOLD
Will Kalshi successfully take action against an insider trading case?
22
Ṁ1kṀ2.9k
2027
53%
chance
19

May be done by a government or Kalshi itself. Ongoing cases are allowed, but some penalty or successful lawsuit must happen. The insider trading incident must have occured by the end of 2026.

Clarifications:

A private Kalshi investigation and banning a user counts for the purpose of this market. If someone leaks the release date of Claude 6 to an insider trader, and Anthropic fires them, that does not count.

Regulators include, but are not limited to the CFTC, SEC etc.

I will not trade in this market.

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sold Ṁ259 NO

I hadn't seen this:

Prediction market platform Kalshi today announced a major expansion of its market surveillance and enforcement framework. The company has formed an independent surveillance advisory committee and new trading surveillance partnerships with Solidus Labs and the Director of the Wharton Forensic Analytics Lab, Daniel Taylor. These initiatives further strengthen Kalshi’s market surveillance and compliance programs, solidifying its position as the leading federally regulated prediction market….

Being federally regulated means that Kalshi bans market manipulation, insider trading, has limits on the types of markets it lists, runs Know-Your-Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) checks on every user before they can trade, and publicly reports all trades to the CFTC daily. Kalshi also spent years building custom prediction market trade surveillance and enforcement systems that are similar to those used in the stock market.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260205980897/en/Kalshi-Announces-Independent-Surveillance-Audit-Committee-Partnerships-with-Director-of-Wharton-Forensic-Analytics-Lab-and-Solidus-Labs-and-new-Head-of-Enforcement

You mean insider prediction trading on Kalshi specifically right? Not trading of Kalshi stock or other stocks?

@xjp Correct

@nikki Does it have to be a lawsuit or legal process? Would an internal investigation and firing an employee count?

@xjp Kalshi or a regulator must take an action. An internal investigation does not count

@nikki Would a private Kalshi investigation and banning a user count?

bought Ṁ50 NO

@xjp yeah that was going to be my question—does an account ban count as a penalty.

@xjp An account ban done by Kalshi does count

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