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MANIFOLD
Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals?
42
Ṁ485Ṁ11k
2030
61%
Other
12%
Will Sawin
11%
Tom hutchcroft
10%
Amol Aggarwal
2%
Mehtaab Sawhney
2%
Marcelo Campos

Each winner resolves to 25% assuming there are 4 winners. Probability mass is distributed evenly among all winners. This will resolve to the real name of the winners, nothing else. If someone puts a duplicate option, it will resolve to the first option.

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bought Ṁ5 YES

@AmanMarkar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Hutchcroft Got his Bachelor's in 2013. If he was 22 then then indeed he's 39 in 2030 so he is eligible.

bought Ṁ100 NO

@Pepe Strong researcher, but I feel that Hong winning isn't good for his chances.