MANIFOLD
Will I freeze 🄶 in Warsaw?
25
į¹€100į¹€608
Feb 3
73%
chance
5

I’ll be visiting Warsaw on February 2 for one day. The weather forecast suggests the temperature there is going to be -17*C to -10*C.

Will I subjectively feel like I’m frozen at any point?

London weather is cold enough that I occasionally feel this way if I spend enough time outside, despite very rarely crossing 0*.

I have a coat and gloves but I don’t expect them to sufficiently help. I’ll fly there with a backpack only, so wearing too many layers might be complicated (and I don’t have many things to wear this way).

Advice is welcome.

(I will resolve the market subjectively and might resolve it to a %.)

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Updated forecast: -12 to -18 *C (10 to 0 *F)

updated weather forecast: -14*C to -26*C

I realized I have two pairs of electrically heated gloves

okay, bounty: m$200 for a link to a winter hat that I’ll buy

It gets to -15°C there in the winters, it has got to -30°C but years ago, legitimately dangerous and worth researching and bringing adequate kit. Also helps avoid the embarrassment of needing rescuing.

When you feel frozen in London, is that only when standing/sitting fairly still, or even when doing heavy exertion (e.g. speed walking)? Do you expect to find yourself standing/sitting fairly still for more than a few minutes while outdoors in Warsaw?

@TheAllMemeingEye if it’s really cold and i speed walk for a while, I’d still be frozen.

I don’t think I’ll be still while outside much.

okay I dislike the odds

bought į¹€10 YES

@ms what odds did you expect?

are you going to change your behavior based on this such as bring more layers or plan to be outside less?

@SpeaksForTrees i will only have a backpack so more layers might be tricky

A friend told me I should buy a single baselayer thing which I might do

@SpeaksForTrees (also if I sufficiently dislike the odds they make me change behavior, yep)

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