MANIFOLD
When will ClaudePlaysPokemon defeat Giovanni in Silph Co? (Extended)
10
Ṁ1.4kṀ13k
resolved Dec 20
Resolved
NO
Before Dec 16
Resolved
NO
Before Dec 19
Resolved
NO
Before Dec 20
Resolved
YES
Before Dec 23
Resolved
YES
Before Dec 30
Resolved
YES
Before Jan 6, 2026
Resolved
YES
Before Jan 13
Resolved
YES
Before Jan 20
Resolved
YES
Before Jan 27
Resolved
YES
Before Feb 3
Resolved
YES
Before Feb 10
Resolved
YES
Before Feb 17
Resolved
YES
Before Feb 24
Resolved
YES
Before Dec 21

All dates are Pacific Time. Based on the current Opus 4.5 run only; if it is reset before defeating Giovanni all answers resolve NO.

  • Update 2025-12-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): New date options will be added progressively as earlier dates resolve, continuing until a reset appears imminent.

  • Update 2025-12-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): All times referenced in answer options are in US Pacific time.

Market context
Claude
Pokemon
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ813
2Ṁ245
3Ṁ155
4Ṁ12
5Ṁ6

People are also trading

Sort by:

@moobunny a pleasure to trade in ur market :)

bought Ṁ300 YES

YAY

bought Ṁ20 YES

congrats Claude!

bought Ṁ15 YES

And an option for Before Dec 21

@traders Added an option for today!

sold Ṁ48 YES

@moobunny Time zone?

@JoshSnider US Pacific time

sold Ṁ0 NO

omg congrats Claude!

bought Ṁ1 NO

Added Feb 17th; I'll add new dates as I resolve them until it seems like a reset is happening soon.

bought Ṁ40 YES

I realized a bug in the mathematical model I was using and the updated version is slightly more optimistic!

Note that the buckets aren't equal here; they get larger at first and then they're a week each.

People are also trading

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy