When will ClaudePlaysPokemon defeat Giovanni in Silph Co? (Extended)
6
1kṀ2178
2026
1.2%
Before Dec 16
14%
Before Dec 19
30%
Before Dec 23
46%
Before Dec 30
54%
Before Jan 6, 2026
63%
Before Jan 13
68%
Before Jan 20
71%
Before Jan 27
73%
Before Feb 3
75%
Before Feb 10

All dates are Pacific Time. Based on the current Opus 4.5 run only; if it is reset before defeating Giovanni all answers resolve NO.

Claude
Pokemon
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
bought Ṁ40 YES

I realized a bug in the mathematical model I was using and the updated version is slightly more optimistic!

Note that the buckets aren't equal here; they get larger at first and then they're a week each.

People are also trading

What will happen during Claude Opus 4.5 Plays Pokemon?
When with ClaudePlaysPokemon beat Pokemon Red/Blue?
When will ClaudePlaysPokemon obtain the 6th badge (Marsh Badge) from Sabrina?
When will ClaudePlaysPokemon obtain the 5th badge (Soul Badge) from Koga?
Will Claude become a Pokèmon Master by the end of 2025?
3% chance
What milestones will the (on-screen) Step Count reach in ClaudePlaysPokemon?
Other than ClaudePlaysPokemon, which AIs will have their own Twitch streams (>24 hrs) playing video games by EOY 2025?
Will the official ClaudePlaysPokemon stream complete Pokémon Red?
86% chance
Will Claude Become a Pokemon Master before 2027?
91% chance
Will Claude beat Pokemon before my 4-year old?
81% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy