Will there be a frontier Chinese AI model before 2027?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question resolves as Yes if an AI model developed by a Chinese firm, between question launch and January 1, 2027, is either:

i) Trained with an amount of compute that's within one order of magnitude of that of the leading AI model in the world at the time.

or

ii) Top 10 in the world, according to Chatbot Arena Leaderboard's Areno ELO rating.

For i, we will use Epoch AI's "Parameter, Compute and Data Trends in Machine Learning" database as the resolution source.

The question will resolve as No otherwise.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.