[ACX 2024] Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?
[ACX 2024] Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?
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Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, for the total period made up of the months of January 2024 through November 2024, inclusive, the sales share of light duty plug-in vehicles (PEVs) is greater than 11% in the United States according to data published by Argonne National Laboratory.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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