Trump has claimed he will impose a 10% tariff on all countries except China, which will have a 60% tariff.
This market will resolve to YES if Trump wins the presidency, and then he imposes a 10% tariff (or greater) on at least most imports (as measured in dollar terms) to the US from all countries except China.
If Trump imposes a tariff in excess of 10%, that does count as a YES.
If Trump imposes a tariff less than 10%, that does not count.
If Trump does not win the presidency, the market resolves to NO, even if the winner imposes a tariff.
1,000I think we should clarify the wording on the resolution criteria. The predominant interpretation seems to be that this is referring to a majority of the sum total of tariffs from all nations (so, if the US imported $2.8 trillion of goods from all nations excluding China, then this would resolve YES if over $1.4 trillion was subject to tariffs). However, there might be an alternative interpretation, that this requires a majority of imports from each individual country to tariffed.
I believe that the best interpretation of the resolution criteria (which takes precedence over any other criteria) is that it refers to the first interpretation. ChatGPT prefers that interpretation, even when prompted to consider the alternative. Also, it would be clearly against the spirit of the market if, say, this market resolved NO if Russia and North Korea are excluded from the tariffs because they are already subject to US sanctions.
@ArmandodiMatteo The resolution criteria is based on the description, not the title, otherwise no complicated resolution criteria could exist
@spiderduckpig in principle yes, in practice if the description is potentially ambiguous and the title only makes sense according to one of two possible interpretations of the description, I think it's way more sensible to use the title to guess what the author meant than to ask ChatGPT to guess (but asking the author @mfow is even more sensible)
@ArmandodiMatteo The title makes sense as a colloquial description which doesn't have to be entirely accurate, the tariffs are frequently described as being "on all nations" or "all imports," including in Trump's own executive order:
"Using his IEEPA authority, President Trump will impose a 10% tariff on all countries."
The purpose of the description is to resolve any specific details of the resolution criteria, the title is only meant as a colloquial description.
Imo, this far into trading, the resolution should only depend on the author's published text, not on any post facto additions by the author
https://manifold.markets/Cactus/average-tariffs-under-trump-RppCgnISL2
move my market guys. I'd do it myself but don't want more exposure to tariff related risks
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/imports-by-country
Just to help determine what counts as "most imports" in dollar terms
@Siebe Hungary can’t easily opt out of retaliatory tariffs against the us though, because it’s in a trading bloc