Ukrainians admitted after August 13 2023 will get their parole expired soon. (Those who arrived before were able to switch to the Temporary Protection Status)
The procedure to extend the parole is officially active, but non have been extended thus far
Will people start getting approved extensions in this year?
Update 2025-08-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - YES if Ukrainians admitted on Humanitarian Parole are allowed to remain in the U.S. by any legal mechanism in August 2025, not only via an explicit Humanitarian Parole extension.
Update 2025-08-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A single case (or a few) will not suffice.
Resolve YES only if, in August 2025:
A non-trivial number of extensions are approved (roughly hundreds), or
There is a blanket ruling allowing expired statuses to legally remain (any legal mechanism counts).
Update 2025-10-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator is conflicted about resolution if current conditions persist through end of year. While a non-trivial number of people are getting extensions (5-10 per day reported), the overwhelming majority have lost their legal status. The resolution in this scenario remains uncertain.
Update 2025-12-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator has decided to resolve YES based on thousands of cases receiving extensions by now, despite the majority of applicants (estimated 90%) not yet receiving their extensions. The market will resolve YES even though only tens of cases per day are being manually extended.
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Situation is basically the same as it was. On the order of 10s of cases per day are being manually extended. My guess is that 90% of applicants haven't gotten their extensions. Frustrated by the state of affairs, I think it is an unfair move by the US government.
I guess I have to resolve yes, given that by now thousands of cases have received their extensions
@Panfilo Iโm in a telegram group that looks for reports of U4U extensions, and there are 5-10 per day. In the app where I track my own case, there are 7 Ukrainians and non of them gotten an extension. Non of the 5 people I personally know got one either. Iโd estimate confidently <10%, probably 1-2%
@mckiev Thanks for the information! It sounds like, by the standards in the description, there will be many hundreds of cases just from those reported in your telegram group. Just 5 per day starting today would be 375 in the rest of the year. Since sometimes it's as many as 10 per day, and you have already been noticing those extensions for some weeks, the total number is more likely well over 500. Also, 1-2% of the total would be about 2000-4000 total, roughly.
@Panfilo yes, it is probably the correct description. Non-trivial number of people are getting extensions, at the same time the overwhelming majority have lost their legal status
I'm conflicted about how to resolve the market if things stay as they are until the end of the year
@mckiev I think you and I agree that it's a very slow and frustrating rate based on a rug pull by the administration. It's sounding like a Yes for the market to me though because the description mentions those relatively low numbers as being enough, and because it asks whether the extensions will "start this year," which they have.