Will a category 5 hurricane form during the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
7
100Ṁ330Dec 1
60%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st - November 30th annually. The past three seasons have each seen at least one Category 5 hurricane (2022: Ian, 2023: Lee, 2024: Beryl & Milton).
Will there be a Category 5 hurricane in the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Of the last 15 years:
Years with a Category 5: 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2022, 2023, 2024
Years without a Category 5: 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2020, 2021
This gives a base rate of 7/15 or 47%. However, if I used the last 10 years, the rate would be 70%. I think the right pricing of this market is somewhere between those values.
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