Will Kalshi or Polymarket launch a conditional market in 2024?

Ṁ70Ṁ435

resolved Jan 2

Resolved

ALL

Conditional markets are useful to guide decision making.

Resolves YES when Kalshi or Polymarket provide at least one conditional market people trade on.

Resolves NO in 2025.

By "conditional market", I mean something like Metaculus provides:

It needs to be somehow mechanically different to the multiple choice markets, they already provide.

Market context

Polymarket

Kalshi

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I'm not aware of any support, so it should be a NO.

What was that spike end of September about though? Seems I missed that.

@marktwse I think there was a market with "if" in the title, but the description of that market made it clear it wasn't really conditional. But I don't remember more about it.

All sorts of existing markets are conditional markets. They tend to be conditional on the event happening and have a rule for if the event doesn't happen.

predictedNO

@MaybeNotDepends I want to be liberal about it, but this is not what people mean when talking about "conditional markets". Added some more description.