Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
IF Andy Burnham leads Labour into the next General Election, will Labour win?
5
Ṁ5.1kṀ308
2029
27%
Labour WINS next General Election (led by Andy Burnham, under FPTP)
42%
Labour LOSES next General Election (led by Andy Burnham, using FPTP)
7%
Labour wins next General Election (led by Andy Burnham, but NOT using FPTP)
10%
Labour loses next General Election (led by Andy Burnham, but NOT using FPTP)
15%
Andy Burnham does not lead Labour into the next General Election

‘Win’ means wins the most seats in parliament.

I have included as separate scenarios the possibility that he might change the voting system (to something other than FPTP) before the next General Election.

Market context
Politics
Elections
UK Politics
UK
Labour Party (UK)
Voting reform
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

If Andy Burnham wins a by-election, will he become PM before the next GE?
+11% 1d96% chance
Will Andy Burnham run for Labour leader unchallenged?
90% chance
Will Andy Burnham lead Labour to the next general election?
74% chance
If Andy Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election, will he become Labour leader in the next leadership election?
96% chance
Will Andy Burnham be PM at the time the next UK general election is announced?
68% chance
Will the Labour Party win the next UK general election?
34% chance
Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?
Will Labour win a by election before the next UK general election?
75% chance
If Keir Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister in 2026, will Labour win the next UK general election?
29% chance
If this person is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK election after 2024, will the PM be Labour?