Will a human land on the moon by this [YEAR]?
Will a human land on the moon by this [YEAR]?
54
2.3kṀ15k
2033
1%
2026
6%
2027
23%
2028
48%
2029
74%
2030
84%
2031
86%
2032
92%
2033
96%
2034

Once a human lands on the moon in year X, all the years after the year X will resolve to YES as well.

The "human" landing on the "moon" must be a safe landing in the sense that the human lands on the moon alive. That's all that matters.

i will resolve the 2024 option soon after the creation of the market, as it was only to create continuity.

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3mo

@mods 2025 resolves NO.

3mo

@asmith Resolving on behalf of banned creator.

1y

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIdelevich/which-agencycompany-will-send-peopl?r=QmVuamFtaW5JZGVsZXZpY2g

@creator will the year of the landing itself resolve YES or NO?

"will resolve to YES as well" sounds like it will resolve YES; but the fact that 2024 is already resolved NO and the market closes at the end of 2033, with 2034 being the last option, seems to indicate that it will resolve NO.

1y

@dp9000 "by" means before usually in such a context. If something happens by 2023, it happened in 2022 or before - that's the usage in this market at least

1y

@lastuserhere I understood it because you resolved 2024 as No, but it would be easier to parse if you changed the title to "Before" instead of By. It would be non-ambiguous that way.

1y

Didn't a human land on the moon in 1969?

1y

@Snarflak Yes, this market is for now and onwards

.

There are now like five versions of this market 😭 As well as a billion individual "by x year" markets

1y

@calderknight This. 😑

1y

1y

Which country would the next person to land on the moon be from?

10mo

@lastuserhere

This market gives over 10% that someone will walk on the moon this year.

https://manifold.markets/TobiasSowaaed/will-a-human-mission-successfully-l?r=U2Vjb25kSGFuZFlU

10mo

@SecondHandYT Since loans are no longer a thing there's less incentive betting on longer term markets. I moved it down to 6% but it should obviously be a lot lower to be in line with other markets.

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