MANIFOLD
Which social network will surpass Facebook's monthly active users first?
20
Ṁ1kṀ736
2031
65%
YouTube
1.2%
WhatsApp
1.2%
Instagram
1.4%
WeChat
30%
TikTok
1.5%
Other

I will use this wikipedia entry (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_social_platforms_with_at_least_100_million_active_users) to check (then make sure the sources are reliable). I don't consider all of these social networks, but I want to have a simple method of verifying it.

Market context
Internet
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

In which year will there be a social network with more active users than Facebook?
2027
Which of the following social platforms will die first? (die = lose >50% of average monthly active users YoY)
Which Twitter-like social media platform will be most popular at the end of 2026?
Will a new social media app surpass TikTok in monthly users before 2027?”
8% chance
Will there be a new social media platform surpassing Instagram before the end of 2026?
31% chance
Will YouTube surpass Facebook to be the #1 social media platform in 2028?
69% chance
Will Bluesky social have more monthly active users than Twitter by March 1st, 2028?
9% chance
Will YouTube surpass Facebook to be the #1 social media platform in 2026?
20% chance
🌐Which social platforms will reach 500M or more users by the end of 2030? [ADD RESPONSES]
Will YouTube surpass Facebook to be the #1 social media platform in 2029?
34% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy