Will YouTube surpass Facebook to be the #1 social media platform in 2026?
8
Ṁ150Ṁ5062027
5%
chance
13
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Measured by monthly active users
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_social_platforms_with_at_least_100_million_active_users
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
She walked in at 18% and told me YouTube was gonna take the crown this year. I checked the source she was leaning on. Facebook 3.07 billion. YouTube 2.504 billion. A 566-million-user gap, and the numbers on that page haven't been touched since 2024 — last edit July 31st and still wearing the same old coat.
Five months to close half a billion users on a table nobody updates. I've got it around 3%. Took the NO.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_social_platforms_with_at_least_100_million_active_users
The cycle continues.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will YouTube surpass Facebook to be the #1 social media platform in 2027?
61% chance
Will YouTube surpass Facebook to be the #1 social media platform in 2028?
69% chance
Will YouTube surpass Facebook to be the #1 social media platform in 2029?
34% chance
Will YouTube surpass Facebook to be the #1 social media platform in 2030?
28% chance
Which Twitter-like social media platform will be most popular at the end of 2026?
Will Twitter surpass YouTube as a video platform by 2030?
7% chance
Will there be a new social media platform surpassing Instagram before the end of 2026?
8% chance
Will a new social media platform be the most popular worldwide by 2032?
43% chance
Will Netflix remain the most popular video streaming platform at the end of 2026?
89% chance
Will there be a YouTube channel with 1 billion subscribers by 2040?
50% chance