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MANIFOLD
Will people use the internet in 2030?
14
Ṁ100Ṁ535
2030
90%
chance

On Jan 1, 2030, will most normal folks still personally use the internet on a typical day?

Reasons to suspect not: because the internet won't exist anymore, because it becomes a no-man's-land of hacking swarms, etc.

  • Update 2026-09-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the internet fragments, any digital network with at least one million devices will count as an "internet" for the purposes of this market, and the resolution will consider the usage of all such networks.

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How closely does it have to resemble the current Internet to still count as “the Internet”?

One theory I heard is that increased security risks might lead to fragmentation, with national firewalls creating distinct internets by country

@JimHays Let's say somewhat arbitrarily that if a digital network has one million devices, it's an internet, and the "the internet" of this question includes all such internets.

The title and resolution criteria contradict each other

@bumin thanks, fixed

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