MANIFOLD
Will a chatbot read sheet music before 2027?
33
Ṁ1kṀ2k
Dec 31
69%
chance

Given the following image and a prompt, will a browser chatbot be able to identify every note in the soprano, alto, tenor, and bass parts?

Needs to be correct:

  • pitch class (if letters are given without sharp/flat, "natural" will be assumed regardless of key signature)

  • duration

  • order of notes

Does not need to be specified/correct:

  • key signature, time signature

  • articulations, slurs, barlines, clefs, chords

  • octaves of note pitches

  • temporal positions of notes

  • format/preface/conclusion text

  • It can use any method for specifying pitch and duration as long as it's unambiguous to map pitch to one of 12 semitone options, and map duration to a real number.

Burden of proof will be on YES-holders. I'm happy to hop on a call to witness a YES-worthy setup. Non-free tiers allowed. Must be a browser-based, US public, general-purpose chatbot. May use up to 4 prompts on up to 4 sessions. No second chances for a demonstrator within 30 days.

I'll accept suggestions (but may veto) prompts and models to try. Otherwise in 2027 I'll just use this prompt on the best free chatgpt, gemini, and claude, filling in each of the 4 part names:

For this line of music, please list the notes/durations of the _______ part.

I won't bet on this market.

  • Update 2026-01-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Chatbots are allowed to call other tools and libraries that are available to US public general purpose browser chatbots.

  • Update 2026-01-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): No installations on the user's computer allowed, but if the US public general purpose browser chatbot can install tools on its end and use those tools, all within the 4 prompt limit, this is allowed.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
bought Ṁ100 NO

whenever ChatGPT opens up Python to write custom image inspection code it's always a bad sign

One the one hand, it's awesome that this is possible. On the other hand... if you have to write a custom clustering algorithm to read sheet music, you're NGMI

@nikki order up at 70%

Does it have to be an llm?

@CraigDemel I'll stick with generally intelligent chatbots. I understand that could be LLMs, or a interface composing LLM with image model and tools, or maybe evolve away from LLM paradigms somehow in 2026

@CraigDemel (On a personal note, I'd be curious about non-chatbot tools that could reliably get the job done too)

@kenakofer are chatbots allowed to call other tools and libraries?

@nikki Tools available to public general purpose browser chatbots, yes. Other tools probably not.

@Twig No installations on the user's computer allowed, but if the US public general purpose browser chatbot can install tools on its end, and use those tools, all within the 4 prompt limit, I'll allow it.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy