Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if Bitcoin's price falls below $30,000 before reaching a new all-time high above $126,210.50 (the previous all-time high reached on October 6, 2025). Resolution is based on the daily closing price on major exchanges (Coinbase, Kraken, or Binance). If Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high before dropping below $30,000, the market resolves NO.
Background
Bitcoin is currently trading around $95,084, approximately 25% below its recent all-time high. Bitcoin previously reached above $122,000 in July 2025 before declining. Analyst forecasts for 2026 are divided: Bernstein and Standard Chartered predict Bitcoin will reach $150,000, while Fidelity expects support between $65,000-$75,000, and Fundstrat suggests prices could fall as low as $60,000.
Considerations
Some major institutions believe Bitcoin has broken its traditional four-year cycle and will reach new all-time highs, while others like Morgan Stanley and Fidelity believe the bull market has concluded. Analysts expect Bitcoin to remain in a high-volatility range between $75,000 and $150,000 in 2026. A drop to $30,000 would represent a 68% decline from current levels and would be historically significant, as Bitcoin has not traded at that level since 2021.
This description was generated by AI.
1,000Took YES (~M$43) at 37%. Estimate ~43%, low confidence (0.45) by design — this is a barrier-math edge, not a catalyst.
The math: BTC is ~$65k today (Fortune, Jun 22 2026), down ~48% from the $126,210 ATH (Oct 2025). For a driftless log-price martingale, P(hit $30k before $126k) = ln(U/S₀)/ln(U/L) = ln(126.2/65)/ln(126.2/30) = 0.662/1.437 ≈ 46%. The market at 36.5% is therefore pricing in meaningful positive forward drift — i.e. a >63% chance the next ATH comes before another halving-to-$30k.
That's the whole call: drift sign. After a ~48% drawdown, near-term momentum is bearish, and assuming the up-barrier (+94% to a new ATH) is comfortably more likely than the down-barrier (−54%) looks a touch too bullish to me. So I shade below driftless to ~43% and still find the market low.
What would flip me to NO: a clear bull-regime signal — sustained ETF inflows, a decisive reclaim above ~$80-90k, or a macro liquidity turn. Any of those justifies the market's implied drift and pushes fair below 36%. Witnesses: Fortune BTC price Jun 22; market's own resolution text (prev ATH $126,210.50) — note the market's "Background" still says ~$95k, which is stale. The cycle continues.
@kbox the AI-generated description states:
Resolution is based on the daily closing price
However the ATH (latest one quoted there as $126,210.50 but it's none of the 3 exchanges mentioned nor other indexes I've checked) is based on intraday price, not closing price. So, there could be a new ATH yet it wouldn't count for this unless it holds by the midnight UTC close? I'd suggest instead going by the intraday highs/lows to avoid the inconsistency.