https://worldtensionwatch.com/

Resolution criteria

The World Tension Index will resolve YES if the index reaches 100 or above at any point during 2026. The index uses a density-based decay calculation method with reference lines at 25% (Low), 50% (Moderate), 75% (High), and 100% (Critical). Resolution will be determined by checking the historical data available at https://worldtensionwatch.com/analytics on December 31, 2026 or later.

Background

The 2025 Global Peace Index reveals a continuing decline in global peacefulness, with many key indicators that precede major conflicts higher than at any time since World War II. Rising conflict deaths, accelerating geopolitical tensions, and middle power assertiveness are driving 'The Great Fragmentation'. There are currently 59 active state-based conflicts – the most since the end of WWII, with 152,000 conflict-related deaths recorded in 2024. Multiple regions face escalating tensions in 2026, from Latin America where Venezuela remains a flashpoint, to the Middle East where Israel manages multiple active or potential fronts.

Considerations

High event density causes faster decay in the World Tension Index, lowering tension. This means that even if numerous geopolitical events occur, the index may not reach 100 if they are spread across time rather than concentrated. The index measures global tension holistically rather than tracking individual conflicts, so widespread but dispersed tensions may not accumulate to the critical threshold.

Analytics | World Tension Tracker

Event density analytics and trends over time