Will a referendum on leaving the EU be announced before the next House (Tweede Kamer) elections in the Netherlands?
Will a referendum on leaving the EU be announced before the next House (Tweede Kamer) elections in the Netherlands?
8
90Ṁ3452027
5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
predictedYES 1y
Article arguing far right parties don't want to leave the EU
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/28/geert-wilders-netherlands-europe-eu/
predictedNO 1y
Some relevant discussion here: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/major-state-exits-eu-before-2027/
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Who will be the biggest Dutch political party in the next poll?
If the Netherlands has a referendum on leaving the EU, will it favor leaving?
12% chance
[Metaculus] Will Norway announce a referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in Sept. 2025?
16% chance
Will the Netherlands formally withdraw from the EU before 2030?
2% chance
Will the Dutch cabinet fall in 2025?
79% chance
Will the Dutch cabinet fall in 2027?
17% chance
Will Norway announce a referendum about joining EU during Trumps Second Term (2025–2029)?
36% chance
Will the Dutch cabinet fall in 2026?
24% chance
Which parties will gain seats in the next Dutch General Election?
Who will be the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands after Dick Schoof?