Will Nigel Farage complete his full term as a Reform Party MP?
Will Nigel Farage complete his full term as a Reform Party MP?
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Representing the Reform Party, Nigel Farage was elected Member of Parliament for Clacton on 4 July 2024. Will he still be a sitting Reform Party MP at the time of the next general election?
This would be resolved as NO if, by the time of the next general election:
For any reason Nigel Farage stands down as MP or another person is elected in a by-election
Nigel Farage leaves the Reform Party
The Reform Party changes its name, breaks up or otherwise ceases to exist.
NB. As of 4 July 2024 Nigel Farage was leader of the Reform Party and one of its controlling shareholders.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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