How much will the average American man weigh in 2030?
How much will the average American man weigh in 2030?
10
1kṀ3302030
197
expected
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Currently the average adult male in the United States weighs 199.8lbs according to the CDC.
This market resolves to however much the average American male will weigh in 2030, according to the most reliable data available at that time.
If for unforeseen reasons (e.g. rapid adoption of highly effective weightloss supplements, a new culinary breakthrough in fatty deliciousness) the average weight in 2030 is beyond the 185-215 range set at market creation, then the market will resolve to the closest value.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What will the US obesity rate be in 2030?
Will the average American man weigh >200lbs in 2030?
25% chance
Will the average American woman weigh >170lbs in 2030?
45% chance
Will the average weight of Americans decrease between 2024 and 2025
61% chance
Will I weigh more than 180 lbs at the end of FY 2025?
24% chance
Will my average weight be under 100 lbs in 2024?
26% chance
Will I ever be above 20% body fat before 2035?
35% chance
More than half of humans will be overweight or obese by end of 2035?
28% chance
How much will I weigh at the end of 2024?
What will be the life expectancy in the USA in 2050?