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Will Artemis 2 return to Earth with all of its crew alive?
12
Ṁ150Ṁ1.8k
Apr 1
96%
chance

This market closes when Artemis 2 returns to Earth (resolves YES), a member of its crew dies during the mission (resolves NO), or the mission is scrapped before T–0 (resolves N/A), whichever occurs first.

Related markets:

/jks/will-artemis-2-return-to-earth-with (this question)
/jks/will-artemis-3-return-to-earth-with

/jks/will-artemis-4-return-to-earth-with

/jks/will-artemis-5-return-to-earth-with

/jks/will-artemis-6-return-to-earth-with

  • Update 2025-08-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Artemis 2 launches with no humans on board (uncrewed), this market will resolve N/A.

Market context
Artemis program
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How much can I trust the 96 here? There is absolutely no freaking way the organization would accept that risk level if it was true, right????

@EvanDaniel find a way to get the real probability!!!

https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-artemis-2-fly-without-crew?r=SnVzc2lWaWxsZUhlaXNrYW5lbg

Will Artemis 2 fly without crew?
15% chance. For any reason, but this is inspired by the chatter about the heat shield
bought Ṁ13 NO

There is another market about Orion not being crewed? How will this market resolve if Artemis 2 doesn't have a crew?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen If there are no humans on board, then this market will resolve N/A.

Updating closing date to 30 September 2025 due to delays:

https://spacenews.com/nasa-delays-artemis-2-and-3-missions/

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